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BAH OURY: De la fievre ebola a la gouvernance d’Alpha Conde

April 2, 2014

De la fièvre ebola à la gouvernance d’Alpha Condé
Par BAH Oury
1er Vice-Président UFDG
Président de l’OREP
Au cours de ces trois dernières années qui correspondent à la présence d’Alpha Condé au pouvoir , les guinéens sont victimes de séries de catastrophes naturelles et de tueries récurrentes dont les forces de l’ordre se sont rendus coupables.
Les plaies de la Guinée
Le 1er septembre 2012, une trentaine de personnes périrent non loin des côtes de Conakry à la suite du naufrage d’une pirogue faisant la navette entre la presqu’île de Kaloum et les îles Kassa.
Le choléra qui sévissait de façon cyclique est devenu endémique avec des poussées épidémiques dans les régions de la Basse et de la Guinée-Forestiére. En 2012 plus de de 8000 cas et 150 décès furent officiellement enregistrés.
Une épidémie de rougeole sévit actuellement dans la plus part des régions du pays. En sept semaines, 2157 cas ont été signalés. Seules les préfectures du littoral ont pu bénéficier d’une couverture vaccinale satisfaisante car selon les autorités du Ministère de la santé, le nombre de vaccins reste encore insuffisant pour l’ensemble du pays. Pourtant , le Programme Elargi de Vaccination dont la prévention est la mission existe en Guinée depuis 1979. Alors il n’est pas admissible que la Guinée soit en proie à cette épidémie. Les raisons de cette carence doivent être explicitées à la population par la mise sur pied d”une commission d’enquête parlementaire pour faire la lumière sur ces programmes qui reçoivent des financements extérieurs conséquents.
Le paludisme est en Guinée une arme de destruction massive . Il reste le premier problème de santé publique et est la première cause de décès en milieu hospitalier (15%) . Le taux de mortalité du fait de la malaria est selon les statistiques de l’OMS (Organisation Mondiale de la Santé) de prés de 170 décès pour 100000 habitants. Ainsi le paludisme tue plus de trente mille guinéens par an.
C’est dans ce contexte déjà suffisamment sinistre , que la fièvre Ebola fait des ravages et alimente une psychose de panique au niveau de la population déjà éprouvée par d’autres calamités. Quatre cas de cette maladie viennent d’être signalés dans la mégapole guinéenne qui compte plus de 2 millions d’habitants. Ces cas s’ajoutent à plusieurs dizaines d’autres recensés en Guinée-Forestière. Sa rapide propagation alarme tous les pays de la région. Certains d’entre eux ont érigé un « cordon sanitaire » aux passages des frontières pour se préserver de la contagion. Plusieurs capitales dans le monde sont alertées et les voyageurs en provenance de la Guinée en font les frais. La CEDEAO vient de lancer un appel à l’aide internationale ,ce qui confirme la gravité de la situation.
Une catastrophe prévisible
La catastrophique situation sanitaire en Guinée n’est pas une surprise. Moins de 3 % de la population bénéficie d’une couverture sociale . La faiblesse du financement du secteur, le manque de personnel qualifié et sa mauvaise répartition dans le territoire et la mauvaise qualité des structures sanitaires expliquent le faible accès des populations notamment rurales aux médicaments essentiels. Le maintien de la Guinée parmi les pays ayant le plus faible indice de développement humain (IDH) depuis sa création au début des années 1990 rend illusoire l’atteinte des cibles des OMD à l’horizon 2015.
Les ressources allouées au budget de la santé ne sont jamais allés au delà des 3 % des dépenses totales. Pour l’année 2014, elles sont seulement de 2,74 % alors que l’OMS et la CEDEAO exigent un minimum de 15 % des ressources pour la santé publique . Manifestement la Guinée est très loin du compte.
Les priorités gouvernementales d’Alpha Condé ne sont pas l’amélioration des conditions de vie des populations ,ni la réduction de la pauvreté car l’essentiel des ressources du pays sont dirigées vers les ministères régaliens ( défense , sécurité, administration du Territoire). La présidence avec la bénédiction du CNT s’est octroyée un budget d’ un milliard de GNF (cent mille euros) par jour et le le Ministère de la Défense dont l’ordonnateur n’est autre qu’ Alpha Condé lui-même se taille la part du lion avec 10 % du budget national.
Les guinéens ne doivent pas imputer à une atavique fatalité, les raisons de leur malheur. Elles sont visibles et elles narguent l’immense majorité de la population. Les dirigeants guinéens ont une large part de responsabilité des multiples souffrances de la société, car en siphonnant pour leur propre compte depuis très longtemps les maigres revenus nationaux , ils réduisent prés de treize millions d’âmes à ce que Franz Fanon avait appelé « les damnés de la terre ».
Les guinéens doivent savoir que la mal-gouvernance endémique de notre pays est le cancer qui ronge tous les secteurs de la société. Elle est aussi nocive et dangereuse que la fièvre Ebola. L’indispensable et urgente éradication de cette maladie infectieuse est une impérieuse nécessité. La solidarité nationale et la conscience citoyenne doivent permettre d’aider à lutter contre ce nouveau fléau qui décime des compatriotes et qui endeuillent plusieurs familles . Mais il faut aussi neutraliser les facteurs de la mauvaise gouvernance dont le pays est victime. La persistance des épidémies rappelle qu’un faible leadership à la tête du pays ne peut qu’apporter désolation ,désespoir et misère généralisée. Par conséquent le changement de la gouvernance actuelle par la mobilisation sociale et citoyenne afin d’arrêter la descente aux enfers de notre pays est une impérieuse nécessité.

 

 

 

 

Bah Oury: 22 janvier 2014 , 7 ème anniversaire du massacre au Pont-Tombo de Conakry (VIDEO)

January 30, 2014

Below is a video of the massacre filmed as it unfolded on January 22, 2007.  Further below is an article by Bah Oury, Vice-President of the UFDG, about the 2007 massacre of an opposition-labor march in Conakry and how violence continues to be the way the government responds to dissent.  Click on the URL below the video to read the article.

 

“Coup Forecasts for 2014″ Author, Jay Ulfelder, Explains WHY Guinea is the Number One Country at Risk for a Coup

January 26, 2014
I asked Jay Ulfelder, author of “Coup Forecasts for 2014,” , whose work I highlighted on this blog yesterday, what factors make Guinea the number 1 country at risk for a coup.  Here is his response:
 
 Jay Ulfelder -
 
“The simple but unsatisfying answer to your question about why Guinea has such a (relatively) high risk this year is that it exhibits virtually all of the major risk factors. It’s a relatively poor country in a coup-prone region with a mixed political regime in which elites’ ethnicity is politically salient; it has a recent history of coup activity; and right now it’s experiencing slow economic growth. Again, I know that’s not terribly satisfying, but I think it does establish a useful baseline for thinking about how susceptible it might be and what to make of certain political developments over the course of the year.” 

Coup Forecasts for 2014: Guinea is Country Most at Risk of Having a Coup Attempt

January 25, 2014
A few days ago, Guineaoye did a post on the work of Jay Ulfelder, of the blog “Dart-Throwing Monkey,” regarding assessing the risk of state-led mass killings.  In this ranking, Guinea came out 13th out of 163 countries.


Today, Ulfelder issued a post about countries at risk for any coup attempt, entitled “Coup Forecasts for 2014.”  Out of the 40 countries with the highest risk, Guinea comes in number one.  Please scroll down to the dot plot in the post to see these rankings.  Variables used in the models appear further below.
 
In previous work from Ulfelder on this topic, his Coup Forecasts for 2013, show Guinea ranked 6th among those countries with the highest risk of coup attempt and in Assessing Coup Risks in 2012, Guinea came in 4th.
Ulfelder says he will leave interpretations of this data to his future posts and feedback from readers.
 
Stay tuned.
 

From Jay Ulfelder’s blog post on Coup Forecasts for 2014, here are the variable used in the models:
  • Geographic Region. Per the U.S. Department of State (and only in the Random Forest).
  • Last Colonizer. Indicators for former French, British, and Spanish colonies.
  • Country Age. Years since independence, logged.
  • Post-Cold War Period. Indicator marking country-years since 1991, when coup activity has generally slowed.
  • Infant Mortality Rate. Relative to the annual global median, logged, and courtesy of the U.S. Census Bureau. The latest version ends in 2012, so I’ve simply pulled those values forward a year here.
  • Political Regime Type. Four-way categorization based on the Polity scale into autocracies, “anocracies,” democracies, and transitional, collapsed, or occupied cases.
  • Political Stability. Count of years since a significant change in the Polity scale, logged.
  • Political Salience of Elite Ethnicity. Yes or no, per a data set on elite characteristics produced by the Center for Systemic Peace (CSP) for the Political Instability Task Force (PITF), with hard-coded updates for 2013 (no changes). This one is not posted on CSP’s data page and was obtained from PITF and shared with their permission.
  • Violent Civil Conflict. Yes or no, per CSP’s Major Episodes of Political Violence data set (here), with hard-coded updates for 2013 (a few changes).
  • Election Year. Yes-or-no indicator for any national elections—executive, legislative, or constituent assembly—courtesy of the NELDA project, with hard-coded updates for 2012 through 2014 (scheduled).
  • Slow Economic Growth. Yes-or-no indicator for less than 2 percent, as described above.
  • Domestic Coup Activity. Yes-or-no indicator for countries with any attempts in the past 5 years, successful or failed.
  • Regional Coup Activity. A count of other countries in the same region with any coup attempts the previous year, logged.
  • Global Coup Activity. Same as the previous tic, but for the whole world.

Human Rights Watch World Report (EN-FR): Guinea in 2013 – NOT a Pretty Picture

January 24, 2014
Manifestation_de_Bruxelles_22_Mars_2013ACKILLINGGuinean holds sign at demonstration against Alpha Conde which took place in Brussels on March 22, 2013
This week, Human Rights Watch, issued its World Report for 2014 which assesses the human rights situation throughout the world during 2013. Here is a link for the Guinea chapter which is in English (the link to French is at top of page).  Below are selected excerpts from the report.

 
Human Rights Watch has done a pretty good job of covering Guinea’s violent landscape and the impunity with which Alpha Conde and his  regime rule the country. Yet, there are two areas which HRW didn’t get right:  the nature of ethnic tensions in Guinea and the dynamic of the “violent” demonstrations.  Another post on this later.
 
There is nothing in this report that will surprise the overwhelming majority of Guineans. It’s shows clearly that, after stealing the 2010 presidential election, Conde arrived in office without a mandate to govern, requiring him to repress citizens who did not vote for him in order to cover his loss in the election.  Since the day he took over the helm of the country, nothing has improved for the people.  He’s driven the country to hell and seems to enjoy it.  
 
Excerpts from the HRW report on Guinea, 2013
 
Introduction 
 

Parliamentary Elections
 
“Parliamentary elections, not held since 2002, were to have taken place six months after the largely free and fair 2010 election of Alpha Condé as president. However, they were repeatedly delayed by opposition demands to address technical concerns involving the electoral list and the right of the diaspora to participate, among other issues. The delay exacerbated ethnic tensions, deepened a concentration of power in the executive branch, and generated considerable frustration within Guinean civil society and the country’s international partners.”
 
 
International Actors 
 
 “International actors—notably the United Nations Office of West Africa (UNOWA), European Union, France, the United States, and the Organisation internationale de la francophonie (OIF)—took proactive steps to resolve disputes over the organization of parliamentary elections, but rarely spoke out on the need for justice for past and recent crimes by state actors.”
 
 
 
 Accountability for September 28, 2009, and Other Crimes
 
 
“The panel has made important strides, having interviewed more than 300 victims and charged at least eight suspects including several high-level members of the security forces. However, progress continues to be stymied by insufficient government backing and support, including the government’s failure to place high-level suspects on leave from their government posts pending investigation and to satisfactorily resolve the judges’ outstanding request to question the former Guinean president, who is currently living in Burkina Faso. Some suspects have been in pretrial detention longer than the two years Guinean law permits.”
 
 
Judiciary and Detention Conditions
 
 
“Prison and detention centers in Guinea are severely overcrowded, and inmates and detainees lack adequate nutrition, sanitation, and medical care. The largest detention facility—designed for 300 detainees—accommodates some 1,100.”
 
 
Truth-Telling and Independent Human Rights Institutions
 
During 2013, the “Reflection Commission,” created by presidential decree in June 2011 to promote reconciliation, made no visible progress in fulfilling its mandate. The interim co-presidents appeared to limit its mandate to promoting reconciliation largely through prayer, while local human rights groups pushed for a commission that could meaningfully address impunity.
 
 
Conduct of Security Forces 
 
“On at least three occasions, members of the security forces attacked or failed to protect members of the opposition or their family members from violence meted out by ruling party militants. On several occasions, members of the security forces engaged in theft, extortion, and other crimes directed at people living in neighborhoods that largely supported the opposition. The police and gendarmes also failed to equally protect people during violent street demonstrations, including by standing by while protestors supporting the ruling party attacked and at times robbed opposition supporters.”
 
 
Freedom of the Media 
 
“In mid-August, soldiers stormed Bate FM in Kankan, shutting it down for airing President Condé being booed at a rally. At least three journalists were briefly detained. The station was later attacked and looted and one journalist was assaulted in the process. The attackers were allegedly supporters of the president.”
 
Key International Actors 
 
Guinea’s key international partners, notably the United Nations, European Union, Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), France, and the United States, remained largely focused on ensuring progress in the long-delayed parliamentary elections. However, they remained largely silent on the need for those responsible for the September 2009 violence. While they made frequent calls to end the violent exchanges between supporters of the opposition and ruling party, they largely failed to condemn abuses by the security forces or demand that they be held accountable for their crimes.” 
 

Guinean Victims of Alpha Conde’s Regime Up the Ante

January 23, 2014

oppositionbatonbeatingIn the last few weeks before the 2010 presidential election, interim government security forces roamed repeatedly through opposition neighborhoods carting off hundreds of young supporters in an effort to reduce the outrage that would accompany the announcement of Conde’s “win.”  Most victims returned home with a host of injuries, including signature beatings with ridged billy clubs.

The article which appears further below is from guineeactu.info and has been translated into English via Google with editing by Guinea Oye.  The article details the determination of victims of state-supported violence in Guinea to obtain justice and end impunity.  If you wish to read it in French, click on this link:  Déclaration de l’Institut de recherche sur la démocratie et l’Etat de droit (IRDED)
 

In addition, the author of this article, Thierno Souleymane Balde, attorney for the victims, held a press conference in Conakry yesterday to talk about the initiative to demand justice for victims of Alpha Conde’s regime:  55 dead, 357 wounded, and 650 arrested.  There are videos of the press conference in which victims give their personal accounts. If interested in the videos of the press conference and accompanying article, primarily in French, please click:   “Des victimes du régime Alpha Condé réclament justice : 55 morts, 357 blessés, 650 arrêtéss of state violence.”

Statement of the Research Institute on Democracy and Rule of Law (IRDED)

Thierno Souleymane Balde Thursday, 23 January 2014 11:00

The goal of the Research Institute on Democracy and Rule of Law (IRDED) in the struggle for the establishment of democracy and the rule of law in the Republic of Guinea, is to promote and protect human rights through awareness, advocacy, legal assistance and advocacy to preserve peace and national unity. And, given the systematic refusal by the Guinean judicial authorities, without any reason beyond a lack of political will proved, to investigate the cases of massacres against innocent and peaceful citizens, particularly in Conakry and Zogota, especially cases of arbitrary arrests and  torture, the IRDED in its firm resolve to fight against impunity, has filed several complaints on behalf of victims against Guinea to commissions and committees of the United Nations for Human Rights in Geneva, Switzerland, December 19, 2013.

In a few weeks these complaints will be forwarded to the Guinean government to provide further explanation of the obvious desire to refuse to carry out the necessary investigations, identification and prosecution of the perpetrators of these killings, illegal arrests and torture of innocent citizens. IRDED will work closely with the Association of victims and relatives of victims of political violence in Guinea to ensure that the perpetrators are brought to justice and that whatever time it takes.

Should the perpetrators realize they will never have peace as long as they have not paid the price of their treason. Beyond these complaints, there are other remedies available in a number of other countries that have universal jurisdiction that we plan to use to obtain justice through for the victims and their families.

It is time for the Guinean authorities to take all necessary measures to stop the perpetrators and bring them to justice before Guinea is convicted of denial of justice by the UN authorities in charge of human rights and to and end this vicious cycle of impunity. Justice must act now at the risk of being discredited further in the eyes of the population and the international community.

It is intolerable and unacceptable for anyone concerned about respect for human rights and the maintenance of peace and national unity to see such acts go unpunished. We must not be content to denounce these practices, but also to help prevent their recurrence by ensuring that all perpetrators are arrested and brought before the competent courts.

We appeal to all men of good will, regardless of your religious affiliation, political, ethnic or social origin, to say no to these outrageous acts of a rule of law to prevent Guinea from becoming a country where injustice reigns as the absolute master.


To the Executive Board 
Thierno Souleymane Balde me

Mission d’observation électorale de l’Union européenne en République de Guinée Rapport final – élections législatives (FR)

January 22, 2014
EUEOMcops
Cristian Preda, Head of the EU Electoral Observation Mission which came to Guinea for the September 28, 2013, legislative election, was in Conakry on January 20-21, 2014, to announce the availability of the team’s final report, (European Union Electoral Observation Mission in the Republic of Guinea – Final Report – Legislative Elections) which includes observations, analyses, and recommendations. The report is 127 pages long and available only in French.  If it becomes available in English in the future, I will post a link.
 
Here is the link to the report:
 
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