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“Coup Forecasts for 2014” Author, Jay Ulfelder, Explains WHY Guinea is the Number One Country at Risk for a Coup

January 26, 2014
I asked Jay Ulfelder, author of “Coup Forecasts for 2014,” , whose work I highlighted on this blog yesterday, what factors make Guinea the number 1 country at risk for a coup.  Here is his response:
 
 Jay Ulfelder –
 
“The simple but unsatisfying answer to your question about why Guinea has such a (relatively) high risk this year is that it exhibits virtually all of the major risk factors. It’s a relatively poor country in a coup-prone region with a mixed political regime in which elites’ ethnicity is politically salient; it has a recent history of coup activity; and right now it’s experiencing slow economic growth. Again, I know that’s not terribly satisfying, but I think it does establish a useful baseline for thinking about how susceptible it might be and what to make of certain political developments over the course of the year.” 
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