Coup Forecasts for 2014: Guinea is Country Most at Risk of Having a Coup Attempt
January 25, 2014
A few days ago, Guineaoye did a post on the work of Jay Ulfelder, of the blog “Dart-Throwing Monkey,” regarding assessing the risk of state-led mass killings. In this ranking, Guinea came out 13th out of 163 countries.
Today, Ulfelder issued a post about countries at risk for any coup attempt, entitled “Coup Forecasts for 2014.” Out of the 40 countries with the highest risk, Guinea comes in number one. Please scroll down to the dot plot in the post to see these rankings. Variables used in the models appear further below.
In previous work from Ulfelder on this topic, his Coup Forecasts for 2013, show Guinea ranked 6th among those countries with the highest risk of coup attempt and in Assessing Coup Risks in 2012, Guinea came in 4th.
Ulfelder says he will leave interpretations of this data to his future posts and feedback from readers.
From Jay Ulfelder’s blog post on Coup Forecasts for 2014, here are the variable used in the models:
- Geographic Region. Per the U.S. Department of State (and only in the Random Forest).
- Last Colonizer. Indicators for former French, British, and Spanish colonies.
- Country Age. Years since independence, logged.
- Post-Cold War Period. Indicator marking country-years since 1991, when coup activity has generally slowed.
- Infant Mortality Rate. Relative to the annual global median, logged, and courtesy of the U.S. Census Bureau. The latest version ends in 2012, so I’ve simply pulled those values forward a year here.
- Political Regime Type. Four-way categorization based on the Polity scale into autocracies, “anocracies,” democracies, and transitional, collapsed, or occupied cases.
- Political Stability. Count of years since a significant change in the Polity scale, logged.
- Political Salience of Elite Ethnicity. Yes or no, per a data set on elite characteristics produced by the Center for Systemic Peace (CSP) for the Political Instability Task Force (PITF), with hard-coded updates for 2013 (no changes). This one is not posted on CSP’s data page and was obtained from PITF and shared with their permission.
- Violent Civil Conflict. Yes or no, per CSP’s Major Episodes of Political Violence data set (here), with hard-coded updates for 2013 (a few changes).
- Election Year. Yes-or-no indicator for any national elections—executive, legislative, or constituent assembly—courtesy of the NELDA project, with hard-coded updates for 2012 through 2014 (scheduled).
- Slow Economic Growth. Yes-or-no indicator for less than 2 percent, as described above.
- Domestic Coup Activity. Yes-or-no indicator for countries with any attempts in the past 5 years, successful or failed.
- Regional Coup Activity. A count of other countries in the same region with any coup attempts the previous year, logged.
- Global Coup Activity. Same as the previous tic, but for the whole world.